You are forgetting one other factor: HATE.

Far more people HATE Trump than hate Biden.

Another thing you are forgetting is the secret ballot. What Americans tell pollsters or their neighbors or with their yard signs in support of Trump is out of fear of retribution against their families and themselves. [E.g., The Senate impeachment trial after 1/6.] But what Americans do in the privacy of the voting booth has recently been the opposite of 'Red Wave' rhetoric. Democrats and independents have consistently surprised pollsters and prognosticators in actual elections since 2020. While many publicly fear Trump, they privately HATE him. The 'silent majority' may yet get their own retribution against the Dark Side of Trumpism.

Love may not trump HATE, but HATE may trump fear.